This Is the State Where People Are Most Likely to Die From COVID-19

As COVID-19 deaths passed the grim 300,000 mark, confirmed cases sprinted above 16 million and hospitalizations topped 100,000, the spread of the disease is expected to quicken. As fatal cases increase, data shows that the disease’s death rates vary widely from state to state.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine has one of the most carefully followed and widely regarded COVID-19 prediction models for deaths, daily infections, testing, mask use, hospital resource use and social distancing. Its scientists forecast that 509,000 Americans will die by April 1, if Americans do not take more aggressive measures to arrest the spread of the disease.

One of the most carefully followed figures that measure how deadly COVID-19 is from place to place is deaths per 100,000 people. The nationwide figure is about 70. The highest rate by the measure by far is New Jersey, with a number of 199.85. Vermont has the lowest number at 15.22.

Eight states have death rates per 100,000 that are above 140 (see below). Aside from New Jersey, they include Massachusetts, Connecticut, Louisiana, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Mississippi. The figures below are based on data through December 13.

Several states at the top of the list share one thing in common. The majority of their death figures occurred early in the spread of the disease. This is particularly true with the states near New York City, which was ravaged by the disease in March and April. This accounts for the presence of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut on the list.

There was also a large outbreak in Boston early in the spread of disease. This accounts for much of the Massachusetts figure.

Notably, the single state on this list that has been hit very hard recently is South Dakota, where the disease has spread rapidly, unarrested, for the past month. The problem has been caused largely by lax rules about mask-wearing and social distancing.

This is the state with the fewest doctors per person.

These Are the States With the Most Coronavirus Deaths per 100,000 People

State Population Deaths Mortality Rate (per 100k)
New Jersey 8,882,190 17,751 199.8493615
Massachusetts 6,892,503 11,349 164.6571645
Connecticut 3,565,287 5,363 150.4226728
Louisiana 4,648,794 6,818 146.6616933
New York 19,453,561 27,785 142.8273209
Rhode Island 1,059,361 1,509 142.4443603
South Dakota 884,659 1,259 142.3147224
Mississippi 2,976,149 4,199 141.0883662

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