Census Bureau to release redistricting data, kicking off process that favors Republicans

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The U.S. Census Bureau is unveiling detailed population data that will serve as the starting gun as states across the country use the information to draw new congressional and legislative districts in a once-in-a-decade process that could help tilt control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections.

The much-anticipated new data, which the Census Bureau will release Thursday, will detail which counties, cities, towns and neighborhoods either gained or lost population.

While the goal of the census is to make sure the districts across the country each have approximately the same amount of people, Democrats and Republicans for generations have used the process to draw district lines that favor their candidates getting elected in ensuing elections in a process known as gerrymandering.

This time around, as was the case 10 years ago, Republicans will likely have the upper hand due to their control of a greater number of state legislatures and governors’ offices, where redistricting decisions are made in most states.

While the GOP lost control of the White House and the Senate majority in last November’s elections, it enjoyed success in down-ballot races. 

The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC), a GOP political organization dedicated to electing Republicans to state legislative and executive offices across the nation, highlights that the party successfully defended each of the 59 GOP-held legislative majorities and flipped two chambers (both in New Hampshire) from blue to red. The RSLC noted that in the process the GOP added 148 new legislative seats across the country.

The GOP state legislative victories mean Republicans will control the redistricting of 43% of House seats, while Democrats have the upper hand in the redistricting of 17% of the seats.

“The RSLC’s work last cycle is what will allow state Republicans to control the redistricting of 187 congressional seats compared to the Democrats’ control of just 75 seats,” RSLC communications director Andrew Romeo spotlighted.

Among the states where Republicans will control the redistricting process are battleground or competitive states, which are growing , including Texas (adding two House seats), Florida (adding one House seat), Georgia and North Carolina (adding one House seat). The major states where Democrats control the process are New York and Illinois, which are both losing a congressional seat.

In 16 states – which account for 167 House seats – the redistricting process will be overseen by legislatures controlled by one party and the governor’s office in the hands of the other party, or by independent commissions.

The GOP controlled the House for eight years before losing the majority in the chamber in the 2018 midterms amid a wave by House Democrats. But Republicans defied expectations and took a big bite out of the Democrats’ majority in last November’s elections. The now need a net gain of just five seats to recapture the majority in the 2022 contests.

While elections are won and lost on the quality of the strengths of the candidates and where they stand on the issues, in theory redistricting alone could help the GOP retake the House majority.

Take New Hampshire for example. While now-President Biden carried the state in the president election and Democrats held on to the one Senate seat that was up for grabs and both of the state’s congressional seats last November, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu won reelection by a landslide, and thanks to his coattails the GOP flipped both of the state’s legislative chambers.

Pointing to his party’s total control of the redistricting process, state GOP chair Steve Stepanek declared at a January meeting of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee that “I can stand here today and guarantee you that we will send a conservative Republican to Washington, D.C. as a congressperson in 2022.”

Republicans will likely redraw the lines of the state’s two congressional districts to make one of them more GOP friendly, which will make flipping the seat easier.

The moves by the states will start as early as next month and last into early next year. Lawsuits are likely to be filed against some of the redrawn districts, as they were following the redistricting process after the 2010 census. Federal courts struck down 11 districts, forcing them to be redrawn, which helped Democrats make pickups in the past couple of House elections.

Both the Democratic Party and the GOP have redistricting organizations, and two years ago former President Obama launched an initiative to combat partisan gerrymandering.

On Thursday morning he took to Twitter to promote the group, writing, “We’re at a turning point in the redistricting process, and maps drawn in the next 12 months will determine the next decade of representation in our country. @AllOnTheLine is empowering folks to demand accountability during redistricting…”

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