How has Brexit affected house prices?

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The latter part of 2020 has seen the housing market thrive following the shutdown in March 2020, where house sales were halted suddenly in line with coronavirus restrictions. While Rishi Sunak’s Stamp Duty holiday has helped considerably in the recovery, other factors are at play in Britain’s growing market.

Even though a deal was struck just in time to stop the UK from crashing out on to WTO terms, the long-term effects of Brexit are yet to be fully realised.

The Bank of England predicted, in a worst-case scenario, that house prices could plummet by 35 percent over three years post-Brexit.

However, recent research indicates this is not the case.

House prices in the UK have climbed 14.1 percent since the UK voted to leave in June 2016.

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Wales had the highest increase, climbing 20.4 percent, whereas London saw the slowest growth, with prices rising by a comparatively small 3.2 percent.

However, when Keller Williams UK compared the rate of house price growth since the EU Referendum to the same time period prior to the vote, they found that the rate had actually slowed considerably.

It shows that while house prices across the UK have increased by 14.1 percent since June 2016, they increased by 28.3 percent during the same time period before the UK voted to leave the bloc.

Keller Williams UK CEO Ben Taylor said: “Regardless of whether you voted Leave or Remain and purely from a property perspective, you could argue that Brexit has provided the perfect tonic for the UK property market.

“Yes, a handful of areas have seen prices fall since the vote itself.

“However, the vast majority of the UK has seen the value of bricks and mortar continue to climb despite the rollercoaster ride that Brexit has been.

“At the same time, the rate of house price growth seen since the vote has slowed in 69 percent of areas.

“This won’t have addressed the outright issue of affordability that many face when trying to get a foot on the ladder.

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“However it does, at least, mean that homebuyers are paying less than they may have otherwise while homeowners have still seen an increase in the value of their investment.”

What’s more, property prices in areas that voted Remain in the EU Referendum averaged £302,688 when the vote took place in 2016.

Since then, they have increased by 8.1 percent to an average of £327,316.

Mysteriously, in areas that voted to abandon the bloc, house prices have increased by 14.1 percent, coming in at an average of £232,976 today.

The firm found that only two of the top 10 areas for house price growth since the EU Referendum were home to a majority Remain vote, the firm found.

Newport has seen the largest increase at 31.7 percent, having voted Leave, while Monmouthshire has seen the largest increase of all Remain areas and the second-largest increase in the UK at 30.5 percent.

Leicester is the only other area to have voted Remain to make the top 10 with an increase of 28.2 percent.

But why have leave areas seen an increase in prices, and not remain ones?

Speaking exclusively to, Mr Taylor explained: “Market sentiment has played a pivotal role in boosting Leave house price growth above that of Remain areas.

“For the large part, those in Leave areas haven’t bought into the hype of a market collapse that many have claimed is coming over the last few years.

“As a result, a far more business as usual attitude has seen the market in these areas continue to move forward with this sustained level of transactions bringing positive price growth with it.

“Leave areas are also generally more affordable pockets of the market and so homebuyers will have felt they had a lot less to lose if a forecasted drop were to materialise.

“Homebuyers in more inflated markets tend to place greater importance on a return on their investment rather than buying a property purely due to aspiration.

“A 5 percent drop in London, for example, would have been far harder to stomach in a monetary sense than a 5 percent drop in the Newport.

“With many Remain areas being home to higher house prices, this buyer hesitation has slowed price growth in these markets while this simply isn’t something we’ve seen across more affordable areas of the UK market.”

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