Trump’s Losing the Ad War, Costing Him Older Voters

President Donald Trump has lost many of the older voters who helped propel him to victory in 2016, and Republican strategists say they think they know why: Trump is losing the ad war to Joe Biden.

The Democratic nominee has outspent Trump on television and is well positioned to press that advantage in the final month of the campaign, with $119 million in reserved time to Trump’s $98 million. Biden has also been buying up additional time in recent weeks, while Trump has canceled his television ad buys amid a campaign cash crunch.

Older voters are the ones most exposed to political ads on broadcast and cable television, with younger viewers more often using subscription streaming services, which have little or no ads.

Trump won voters older than 65 in 2016 by 7 percentage points, according to exit polls. Now, pre-election polls show him trailing: A Marist/NPR/PBS poll last week put his deficit at 8 points, a 15-point swing from four years ago.

Trump’s senior citizen problem isn’t lost on Republican strategists.

One who asked not to be named publicly criticizing the campaign, said there’s a direct cause-and-effect between Trump’s television time and his poor showing among senior citizens. By failing to mount an effective air war, Trump is inadvertently giving up ground in a fight for a key voting bloc, the strategist said.

The Trump campaign conceded it’s being outspent but insisted its message is winning.

“Joe Biden is lighting his money on fire with last-minute TV ads to appeal to seniors,” said Trump campaign spokeswoman Samantha Zager. “Seniors know President Trump is preserving Social Security, strengthening Medicare, and cutting prescription drug costs.”

Adults 65 and older spend almost 54 hours a week watching television, according to Nielsen — more than any other age group. They rely on television for entertainment, companionship — and their political news. “That’s why it’s a source of concern,” said Julian Mulvey, a Democratic strategist.

Those older demographics help explain why the coronavirus has gotten so much attention in political ads. Data from the Centers for Disease Control show that Americans 65 and older are dying from Covid at rates 20 times more than those under 65. But the campaigns are cutting ads on perennial issues like health care and retirement benefits, too.

Biden has hammered Trump on Social Security, airing ads in Florida and other key states saying Trump’s plan to eliminate payroll taxes would bankrupt the program. Trump has said he wants to shift responsibility for old-age and disability benefits to the government’s general fund, leaving benefits intact.

Trump has counterattacked with an ad quoting then-Senator Biden in 1995 arguing for a freeze to Social Security and Medicare spending as part of a larger deficit-reduction measure.

Those ads are predominately airing in Florida, the battleground state with the most ad spending and where 30% of the electorate is over age 65, second only to West Virginia.

But it’s not just Florida. About 75% of the audience reached by television ads nationally in 2020 is age 55 or older, according to data compiled from ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics.

“Overall, TV ads are not as effective as they used to be just because fewer people watch television and young people tend not to watch television much at all. But one exception to that is senior citizens,” said Darrell West, a Brookings Institution fellow and author of “Air Wars: Television Advertising and Social Media in Election Campaigns.”

The older bias inherent in television’s demographics are even more pronounced on the shows that political campaigns tend to advertise on, West said. Most prime-time programming is bought by national advertisers, so campaigns trying to target a specific battleground state are often left to advertise on daytime television and local news programs — whose audiences are tend to be older.

That also means campaigns and their allies have learned to aim their ads on specific issues to certain age demographics.

One of the most-aired Biden ads of the year begins, “Our seniors that are being hit the hardest, are frightened.”

It’s aired more than 13,000 times and has been seen almost 300 million times, mostly on shows like “Jeopardy” and “Wheel of Fortune” but also on TV classics like “Have Gun, Will Travel,” “Rawhide” and “The Rifleman.”

Source: Read Full Article