Market Focus Starts to Turn Toward Biden Victory, Analysts Say

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A number of analysts are highlighting fresh investor interest in the implications of Joe Biden beating Donald Trump in November.

Conversations with clients have begun to slowly shift toward what a Democratic sweep may mean, Compass Point’s managing director for policy research Isaac Boltansky wrote in a note. Market participants will probably feel compelled to consider the policy implications at the end of this month or early August at the latest, as company earnings reports ebb and investors increasingly assess second-half 2020 themes, he said.

Boltansky also believes a Phase 4 government stimulus deal will be done by early August, and he flagged the beginning of the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 17 and the Republican National Convention on Aug. 24 as “the starting gun for the race to November 3.”

Separately, Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said that one reason for the strong stock market on Monday might have been the sense that “Biden won’t be that bad for markets.” The S&P 500 rose as much as 1.7% in morning trading, extending a five-day rally that’s the longest since mid-December.

“For the last several months investors watched Biden’s rising poll momentum with trepidation, but now a narrative is emerging whereby he’s being painted as a neutral (and possible upside surprise) for stocks (as taxes won’t rise by as much as feared while trade policy should be less disruptive and the volume of nonsense tweets will be substantially reduced),” Crisafulli wrote in a note.

Earlier, JPMorgan strategists including Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and Marko Kolanovic said Wall Street is too negative about a Biden win, as the Democrat is more market-friendly than analysts currently predict. They cited potential benefits from infrastructure spending, softer tariff rhetoric and higher wages, and they said the tax hit to S&P 500 earnings may be lower than many are expecting.

Also on Monday, Wedbush analyst Moshe Katri wrote that the U.S. elections were “likely the most important near-term regulatory event” for Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. Investors are already watching various outcomes, Katri said, and are viewing the Democrats controlling all three government branches as the worst case “scenario given past efforts to regulate interchange.” Visa rose as much 1.8% on Monday, while Mastercard climbed as much as 1.6%.

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