Russian supply fears cause oil price to rise

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The price of oil rose $1 (83 pence) on Friday in expectation of a fall in supply of Russian crude. This has helped to assuage fears of a hit to demand in the US due to an Arctic storm affecting transport in the country.

Brent crude was up by 66 cents (50 pence), or 0.8 percent, to $81.64 (£67.80) a barrel by 04:40am GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up to $78.27 (£65) a barrel, up 78 cents (65 pence), or one percent higher.

Earlier in the session both Brent and WTI hit highs of $82.17 (£68.24) and $78.77 (£65.42) respectively.

Both are set to gain for the second week in a row, with Brent up 3.3 percent and WTI up 5.4 percent.

In December, exports from Russia’s Baltic oil could drop by 20 percent from November level after G7 and EU sanctions, according to traders and Reuters calculations, with a price cap having come into effect on December 5.

It is thought Moscow could decrease oil production from early next year by as much as 5-7 percent in response to these price caps.

The RIA news agency cited Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying the country would cut off supplies to countries that supported these sanctions.

OANDA analyst Edward Moya said: “Crude prices are higher as energy traders focus on Moscow’s response to the price cap put on Russian oil and not so much the thousands of flight cancellations that will disrupt holiday travel.”

In the US over 4,400 flights have been cancelled over a two day period due to a brutal winter storm, unfortunately coinciding with the holiday travel season.

However the extreme weather could boost demand for heating oil as power outages are possible.

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Leon Li, an analyst at CMC Markets, said: “As US crude oil inventories fall and winter storms hit the US, cold temperatures are expected to extend southward to Texas, Florida, and the eastern states. Demand for heating oil will soar.”

A huge spike in COVID-19 cases in China, the world’s second greatest consumer of oil, has also led to speculation about demand levels.

OANDA’s Mr Moya said: “The oil market’s biggest wildcard is China and optimism is still strong that the reopening will continue and eventually lead to more demand.”

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